Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 8.848985 10.153781 11.559436 13.183248 15.004172 16.979879 19.282440
2026-01-18 6.739937 8.462460 10.464017 12.949274 15.938946 19.405472 23.714049
2026-01-25 5.750872 7.653644 9.974464 12.990264 16.779648 21.355288 27.267145
2026-02-01 5.013128 7.032222 9.604319 13.084147 17.626586 23.307653 30.895908
2026-02-08 4.385673 6.447662 9.177535 13.003717 18.166385 24.821125 33.965473
2026-02-15 3.861070 5.930834 8.770749 12.882719 18.600949 26.175772 36.852483
2026-02-22 3.488953 5.578746 8.540994 12.957814 19.268088 27.832314 40.177505
2026-03-01 3.252729 5.394522 8.521238 13.307780 20.312882 30.026424 44.307673
2026-03-08 2.901419 4.996856 8.149875 13.108145 20.543592 31.078962 46.877690
2026-03-15 2.509710 4.493573 7.572738 12.549052 20.197519 31.272164 48.210441
2026-03-22 2.372071 4.385264 7.590356 12.886661 21.190503 33.425339 52.435595
2026-03-29 2.228939 4.252327 7.554719 13.131083 22.043784 35.397535 56.462163
2026-04-05 2.027044 4.002701 7.315745 13.042656 22.387496 36.642225 59.493331
2026-04-12 1.837620 3.756008 7.061029 12.908041 22.645209 37.761524 62.377196
2026-04-19 1.693397 3.575728 6.901862 12.914867 23.119483 39.220315 65.820200
2026-04-26 1.578991 3.439374 6.806845 13.020211 23.753713 40.947607 69.737606
2026-05-03 1.447543 3.256213 6.612394 12.935984 24.059455 42.154264 72.867352
2026-05-10 1.324255 3.076109 6.408009 12.816973 24.292783 43.243534 75.837902
2026-05-17 1.237672 2.961694 6.315959 12.891229 24.857021 44.888253 79.755569
2026-05-24 1.191408 2.927125 6.372546 13.239796 25.915225 47.388130 85.155309
2026-05-31 1.085902 2.753931 6.145549 13.040997 25.984294 48.221306 87.814391
2026-06-07 0.952727 2.504460 5.746098 12.484449 25.371649 47.859538 88.444061
2026-06-14 0.920731 2.481902 5.805274 12.820525 26.411468 50.382250 94.045130